Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 239 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Aug 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 26/2250Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (28 Aug, 29 Aug, 30 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 482 km/s at 27/1638Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 26/2116Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 26/2222Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 239 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (28 Aug, 29 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (30 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 28 Aug-30 Aug
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Aug 142
Predicted 28 Aug-30 Aug 148/150/150
90 Day Mean 27 Aug 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Aug 009/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Aug 009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Aug-30 Aug 010/010-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Aug-30 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 20/20/10
Space Weather
