Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 239 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Aug 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at 27/0240Z from Region 3088 (S24W72). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on day one (28 Aug) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days two and three (29 Aug, 30 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 439 km/s at 27/2058Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 27/0935Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 27/1157Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 27 pfu at 27/1220Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2178 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (28 Aug), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (29 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day three (30 Aug). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (28 Aug) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (29 Aug, 30 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 28 Aug-30 Aug
Class M 55/35/30
Class X 25/10/10
Proton 25/10/10
PCAF yellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Aug 128
Predicted 28 Aug-30 Aug 125/122/120
90 Day Mean 27 Aug 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Aug 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Aug 011/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Aug-30 Aug 014/018-020/028-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Aug-30 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/35
Minor Storm 30/30/15
Major-severe storm 05/15/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/05/15
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 65/70/50
