Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 238 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Aug 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at 26/1214Z from Region 3089 (S21E44). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (27 Aug, 28 Aug, 29 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 381 km/s at 26/1200Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 26/1957Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 26/0429Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3604 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (27 Aug, 28 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day three (29 Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (27 Aug, 28 Aug, 29 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Aug 119
Predicted 27 Aug-29 Aug 120/118/116
90 Day Mean 26 Aug 118

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Aug 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Aug 006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Aug-29 Aug 007/008-007/008-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/20/35
Minor Storm 05/05/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/10
Minor Storm 20/30/25
Major-severe storm 15/25/50