Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 237 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Aug 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 25/1951Z from Region 3088 (S26W45). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class or X-class flare on days one, two, and three (26 Aug, 27 Aug, 28 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 512 km/s at 25/1425Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 25/0838Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 25/0549Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2806 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and three (26 Aug, 28 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (27 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 26 Aug-28 Aug
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Aug 118
Predicted 26 Aug-28 Aug 120/120/115
90 Day Mean 25 Aug 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Aug 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Aug 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Aug-28 Aug 006/005-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Aug-28 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/25
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 25/20/30
Major-severe storm 20/20/30
