Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 236 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Aug 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 24/1804Z from Region 3405 (N09W61). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Aug, 26 Aug, 27 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 527 km/s at 24/1820Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 24/1601Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 24/1333Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 602 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (25 Aug, 27 Aug) and quiet levels on day two (26 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 25 Aug-27 Aug
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Aug 144
Predicted 25 Aug-27 Aug 145/145/150
90 Day Mean 24 Aug 166
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Aug 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Aug 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Aug-27 Aug 008/008-005/005-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Aug-27 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/20
Major-severe storm 20/10/20
space weather
