Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 236 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Aug 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Aug, 26 Aug, 27 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 524 km/s at 24/1641Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 24/0454Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 23/2101Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3354 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (25 Aug, 26 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (27 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 25 Aug-27 Aug
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Aug 108
Predicted 25 Aug-27 Aug 105/105/108
90 Day Mean 24 Aug 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Aug 003/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Aug 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Aug-27 Aug 006/005-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Aug-27 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20
