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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2022

By Keith Cowing
Press Release
NOAA SWPC
August 23, 2022
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2022
space weather
NOAA SWPC

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 23/0211Z from an unnumbered plage region in the southern hemisphere. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Aug, 25 Aug, 26 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 550 km/s at 23/0220Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 23/0049Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 23/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4363 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (24 Aug, 25 Aug, 26 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Aug 101
Predicted 24 Aug-26 Aug 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 23 Aug 118

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug 007/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Aug 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug 005/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/15/20

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