Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 23/0211Z from an unnumbered plage region in the southern hemisphere. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Aug, 25 Aug, 26 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 550 km/s at 23/0220Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 23/0049Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 23/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4363 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (24 Aug, 25 Aug, 26 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Aug 101
Predicted 24 Aug-26 Aug 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 23 Aug 118

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug 007/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Aug 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug 005/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/15/20