Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 233 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Aug 2022 COR
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 22/1409Z from Region 3085 (N30E01). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: There is a chance for C-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Aug, 24 Aug, 25 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 623 km/s at 22/0003Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 21/2355Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 22/0032Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3820 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (23 Aug), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (24 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (25 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Aug 097
Predicted 23 Aug-25 Aug 100/100/095
90 Day Mean 21 Aug 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Aug 013/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Aug 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug 007/008-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/15
Minor Storm 10/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 30/30/20
