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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 233 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Aug 2022

By Keith Cowing
Press Release
NOAA SWPC
August 21, 2022
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 233 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Aug 2022
Space Weather
NOAA SWPC

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 21/0459Z from Region 3081 (N11W66). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (22 Aug, 23 Aug, 24 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 633 km/s at 21/0355Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 21/0822Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 21/0054Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3322 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (22 Aug), quiet to active levels on day two (23 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (24 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 22 Aug-24 Aug
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Aug 097
Predicted 22 Aug-24 Aug 098/096/096
90 Day Mean 21 Aug 119

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Aug 016/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Aug 014/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Aug-24 Aug 019/025-014/015-009/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Aug-24 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/35/25
Minor Storm 25/15/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/20
Major-severe storm 25/30/20

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