Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 232 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Aug 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 19/2240Z from Region 3081 (N16W38). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 Aug, 22 Aug, 23 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 662 km/s at 19/2114Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 19/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 20/2022Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1742 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (21 Aug, 22 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day three (23 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 21 Aug-23 Aug
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Aug 102
Predicted 21 Aug-23 Aug 100/098/098
90 Day Mean 20 Aug 119

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Aug 015/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Aug 014/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Aug-23 Aug 018/025-019/025-015/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Aug-23 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/40/35
Minor Storm 25/25/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 65/60/50