Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 231 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Aug 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 19/0648Z from Region 3410 (S30W75). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Aug, 21 Aug, 22 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 528 km/s at 19/0741Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 19/1939Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 19/1904Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 193 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (20 Aug, 21 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (22 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Aug 151
Predicted 20 Aug-22 Aug 150/153/153
90 Day Mean 19 Aug 166
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Aug 014/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Aug 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Aug-22 Aug 008/008-006/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
space weather
