Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 231 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Aug 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 19/0444Z from Region 3078 (S24W62). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Aug, 21 Aug, 22 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 685 km/s at 19/2055Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 19/1716Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 19/1923Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2095 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (20 Aug), quiet to active levels on day two (21 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (22 Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (20 Aug, 21 Aug, 22 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Aug 105
Predicted 20 Aug-22 Aug 105/105/100
90 Day Mean 19 Aug 120

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Aug 019/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Aug 016/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Aug-22 Aug 018/025-008/025-008/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/15
Minor Storm 25/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 60/40/20