Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 230 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Aug 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 18/1055Z from Region 3078 (S24W47). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 Aug, 20 Aug, 21 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 637 km/s at 18/1254Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 18/0034Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 18/0522Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 509 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (19 Aug), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (20 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (21 Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (19 Aug, 20 Aug, 21 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 19 Aug-21 Aug
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Aug 117
Predicted 19 Aug-21 Aug 125/120/115
90 Day Mean 18 Aug 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Aug 022/028
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Aug 019/026
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Aug-21 Aug 021/030-018/025-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Aug-21 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/40/20
Minor Storm 35/15/05
Major-severe storm 25/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/10/20
Minor Storm 15/30/30
Major-severe storm 75/55/25
