Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 23 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jan 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 22/2225Z from Region 3191 (N12W57). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Jan, 25 Jan, 26 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 555 km/s at 23/0613Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 23/0603Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 23/0714Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 329 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (24 Jan, 25 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (26 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (24 Jan, 25 Jan, 26 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan
Class M 45/45/45
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jan 189
Predicted 24 Jan-26 Jan 185/185/180
90 Day Mean 23 Jan 150

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jan 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jan 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jan-26 Jan 008/012-013/015-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/35/25
Minor Storm 10/15/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/20
Minor Storm 35/35/30
Major-severe storm 35/40/25

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