Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Aug 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 15/2152Z from Region 3405 (N10E65). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Aug, 18 Aug, 19 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 332 km/s at 16/1413Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 16/1910Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 16/1304Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 732 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (17 Aug), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (18 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (19 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Aug 160
Predicted 17 Aug-19 Aug 160/160/160
90 Day Mean 16 Aug 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Aug 007/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Aug 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug 014/015-010/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/20/15
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 30/20/20
space weather
