Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 15/0657Z from Region 3395 (N12W87). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Aug, 17 Aug, 18 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 336 km/s at 15/0327Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 15/1717Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 15/1717Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 899 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (16 Aug, 17 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (18 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Aug 158
Predicted 16 Aug-18 Aug 160/160/155
90 Day Mean 15 Aug 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Aug 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug 009/012-014/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/35/20
Minor Storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/30/20
space weather
