- Press Release
- Oct 4, 2022
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 15/1654Z from Region 3078 (S24W05). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Aug, 17 Aug, 18 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 510 km/s at 15/0127Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 14/2110Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 15/1337Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7575 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (16 Aug), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (17 Aug) and active to major storm levels on day three (18 Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (16 Aug, 17 Aug, 18 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 10/10/10
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Aug 131
Predicted 16 Aug-18 Aug 130/130/125
90 Day Mean 15 Aug 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug 009/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Aug 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug 006/005-016/022-025/038
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 01/30/40
Major-severe storm 01/10/25
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 15/20/15
Major-severe storm 05/70/85