Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 14/1400Z from Region 3079 (S11W39). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Aug, 16 Aug, 17 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 530 km/s at 14/0010Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 14/1820Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 14/0036Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3058 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (15 Aug, 16 Aug) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (17 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Aug 126
Predicted 15 Aug-17 Aug 124/124/122
90 Day Mean 14 Aug 123

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug 010/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Aug 008/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug 005/005-006/005-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/35
Minor Storm 01/01/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 15/15/30
Major-severe storm 05/05/50