Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 225 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Aug 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 12/2352Z from Region 3395 (N13W44). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (14 Aug, 15 Aug, 16 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 443 km/s at 12/2157Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 13/0031Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 12/2316Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1368 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (14 Aug, 15 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day three (16 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Aug 150
Predicted 14 Aug-16 Aug 140/130/135
90 Day Mean 13 Aug 166

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Aug 010/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Aug 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug 005/005-006/005-009/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/25
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/25
Minor Storm 20/15/25
Major-severe storm 15/15/15
space weather