Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 225 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Aug 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 13/0731Z from Region 3079 (S11W25). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Aug, 15 Aug, 16 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 574 km/s at 12/2202Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 13/1458Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 13/1606Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6242 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (14 Aug) and quiet levels on days two and three (15 Aug, 16 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Aug 124
Predicted 14 Aug-16 Aug 122/122/121
90 Day Mean 13 Aug 123

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Aug 006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Aug 009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug 007/008-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/05/05
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/15/15
Major-severe storm 25/05/05