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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 224 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Aug 2023

By Keith Cowing
Status Report
NOAA SWPC
August 13, 2023
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 224 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Aug 2023
space Weather
NOAA SWPC

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 12/0915Z from Region 3395 (N13W44). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Aug, 14 Aug, 15 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 495 km/s at 12/0948Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 11/2103Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 12/0206Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1031 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (13 Aug, 14 Aug, 15 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Aug 148
Predicted 13 Aug-15 Aug 145/140/130
90 Day Mean 12 Aug 166

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Aug 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Aug 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Aug-15 Aug 005/005-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/15/15

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