Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 224 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Aug 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 12/0915Z from Region 3395 (N13W44). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Aug, 14 Aug, 15 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 495 km/s at 12/0948Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 11/2103Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 12/0206Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1031 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (13 Aug, 14 Aug, 15 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Aug 148
Predicted 13 Aug-15 Aug 145/140/130
90 Day Mean 12 Aug 166
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Aug 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Aug 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Aug-15 Aug 005/005-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/15/15
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