Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 224 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Aug 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 12/1020Z from Region 3077 (S18W48). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Aug, 14 Aug, 15 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 716 km/s at 12/0531Z. Total IMF reached 28 nT at 12/0337Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 12/0700Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3335 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (13 Aug, 14 Aug, 15 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Aug 120
Predicted 13 Aug-15 Aug 120/118/118
90 Day Mean 12 Aug 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Aug 012/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Aug 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Aug-15 Aug 007/008-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/05/05
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 20/05/05
