Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 223 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Aug 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 11/0658Z from Region 3077 (S17W37). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Aug, 13 Aug, 14 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 589 km/s at 11/0504Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 11/2052Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 11/1725Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 14595 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (12 Aug) and quiet levels on days two and three (13 Aug, 14 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Aug 115
Predicted 12 Aug-14 Aug 115/115/115
90 Day Mean 11 Aug 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Aug 010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Aug 015/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Aug-14 Aug 011/012-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/10/05
Minor Storm 15/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/15
Major-severe storm 55/20/05
