Earth

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2022

By Keith Cowing
Press Release
NOAA SWPC
August 10, 2022
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2022
Space weather
NOAA SWPC

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Aug, 12 Aug, 13 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 623 km/s at 10/1500Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 10/0425Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 10/1457Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6675 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (11 Aug) and quiet levels on days two and three (12 Aug, 13 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Aug 108
Predicted 11 Aug-13 Aug 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 10 Aug 124

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug 015/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Aug 010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug 010/012-007/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/20/15
Minor Storm 15/05/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 50/25/20

SpaceRef co-founder, Explorers Club Fellow, ex-NASA, Away Teams, Journalist, Space & Astrobiology, Lapsed climber.