Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 221 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Aug 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Aug, 11 Aug, 12 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 632 km/s at 09/1056Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 09/0753Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 09/0809Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7176 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (10 Aug), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (11 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (12 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Aug 109
Predicted 10 Aug-12 Aug 110/105/105
90 Day Mean 09 Aug 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Aug 021/027
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Aug 016/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug 012/015-007/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/15
Minor Storm 20/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 20/30/25
Major-severe storm 55/40/25
