Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 219 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was an X1 event observed at 07/2046Z from Region 3386 (N11W0*). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (08 Aug, 09 Aug) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (10 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 504 km/s at 07/1942Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 07/1156Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 07/0136Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4 pfu at 07/0245Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 153 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to major storm levels on day one (08 Aug), quiet to active levels on day two (09 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (10 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (08 Aug, 09 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
Class M 55/55/35
Class X 10/10/01
Proton 25/25/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Aug 170
Predicted 08 Aug-10 Aug 170/165/160
90 Day Mean 07 Aug 166
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Aug 008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug 024/035-014/015-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/35/15
Minor Storm 40/20/05
Major-severe storm 25/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/20/15
Minor Storm 20/30/20
Major-severe storm 70/30/20
Space weather
