Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 219 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Aug, 09 Aug, 10 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 619 km/s at 07/2058Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 07/1442Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 07/1401Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 193 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (08 Aug), quiet to active levels on day two (09 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (10 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Aug 116
Predicted 08 Aug-10 Aug 116/112/112
90 Day Mean 07 Aug 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug 005/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Aug 014/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug 014/018-013/014-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/20
Minor Storm 25/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
