- Status Report
- Feb 2, 2023
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Aug 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Aug, 08 Aug, 09 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 404 km/s at 05/2226Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 06/2022Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 05/2109Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 146 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (07 Aug, 08 Aug, 09 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Aug 116
Predicted 07 Aug-09 Aug 118/116/112
90 Day Mean 06 Aug 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Aug 007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Aug 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug 011/012-010/012-013/014
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 10/10/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 35/35/50