Earth

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Aug 2022

By Keith Cowing
Press Release
NOAA SWPC
August 6, 2022
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Aug 2022
Space Weather
NOAA SWPC

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Aug, 08 Aug, 09 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 404 km/s at 05/2226Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 06/2022Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 05/2109Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 146 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (07 Aug, 08 Aug, 09 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Aug 116
Predicted 07 Aug-09 Aug 118/116/112
90 Day Mean 06 Aug 125

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Aug 007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Aug 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug 011/012-010/012-013/014

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/35
Minor Storm 10/10/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 35/35/50

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