Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 05/0936Z from Region 3380 (S10, L=125). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (06 Aug, 07 Aug) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (08 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 470 km/s at 05/1017Z. Total IMF reached 25 nT at 05/0230Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -23 nT at 05/0226Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 18 pfu at 05/1745Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 106 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (06 Aug, 07 Aug) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (08 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev are expected to cross threshold on day one (06 Aug) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (07 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug
Class M 55/55/35
Class X 10/10/05
Proton 75/20/05
PCAF yellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Aug 176
Predicted 06 Aug-08 Aug 170/168/166
90 Day Mean 05 Aug 166
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug NA/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Aug 027/037
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug 009/010-009/012-014/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/40
Minor Storm 10/05/30
Major-severe storm 01/01/10
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 20/20/50
space weather
