Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 05/0607Z from Region 3073 (S35W45). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Aug, 07 Aug, 08 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 433 km/s at 04/2220Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 05/0042Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 05/0033Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 199 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (06 Aug, 07 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day three (08 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 05/05/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Aug 114
Predicted 06 Aug-08 Aug 114/114/112
90 Day Mean 05 Aug 125

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug 007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Aug 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug 008/008-008/008-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/25
Minor Storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 20/20/35