Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 216 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Aug 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Aug, 06 Aug, 07 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 518 km/s at 03/2153Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 04/0430Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 04/1607Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 297 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (05 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (06 Aug, 07 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Aug 109
Predicted 05 Aug-07 Aug 112/112/112
90 Day Mean 04 Aug 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Aug 007/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Aug 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug 006/005-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/15/15
