- Press Release
- August 11, 2022
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 215 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Aug 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 03/1708Z from Region 3068 (S15W24). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 Aug, 05 Aug, 06 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 559 km/s at 03/0201Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 02/2225Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 02/2146Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 348 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (04 Aug) and quiet levels on days two and three (05 Aug, 06 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Aug 100
Predicted 04 Aug-06 Aug 100/100/100
90 Day Mean 03 Aug 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Aug 010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Aug 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug 008/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 30/20/15