Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 214 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Aug 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 02/1533Z. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Aug, 04 Aug, 05 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 536 km/s at 02/1926Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 02/1145Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 02/1012Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 390 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Aug), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (04 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (05 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Aug 098
Predicted 03 Aug-05 Aug 100/098/098
90 Day Mean 02 Aug 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Aug 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Aug 009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Aug-05 Aug 010/012-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/15
Minor Storm 15/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 45/30/20
