Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 213 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Aug 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 31/2309Z. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Aug, 03 Aug, 04 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 558 km/s at 01/0510Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 31/2120Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 31/2230Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 198 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (02 Aug, 03 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (04 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Aug 095
Predicted 02 Aug-04 Aug 094/096/094
90 Day Mean 01 Aug 126

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jul 012/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Aug 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug 009/012-010/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/20
Minor Storm 15/15/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 45/45/30