Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 212 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jul 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 31/0900Z from Region 3390 (S20E34). There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: one, two, and three (01 Aug, 02 Aug, 03 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 499 km/s at 30/2345Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 31/0238Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 31/0417Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4 pfu at 30/2225Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 935 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (01 Aug, 02 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (03 Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (01 Aug, 02 Aug, 03 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Jul 177
Predicted 01 Aug-03 Aug 175/175/170
90 Day Mean 31 Jul 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jul 018/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jul 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Aug-03 Aug 023/030-014/018-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/20
Minor Storm 30/25/05
Major-severe storm 15/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 60/45/20
space weather
