Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 212 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jul 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Aug, 02 Aug, 03 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 422 km/s at 31/2100Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 31/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 31/1349Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1374 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 Aug), quiet levels on day two (02 Aug) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (03 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Jul 094
Predicted 01 Aug-03 Aug 092/090/092
90 Day Mean 31 Jul 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jul 008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jul 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Aug-03 Aug 009/010-005/005-012/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/10/35
Minor Storm 15/01/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 25/20/25
Major-severe storm 50/15/60
