Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 211 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jul 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (31 Jul, 01 Aug, 02 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 373 km/s at 30/1804Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 30/1857Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 30/1127Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1067 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (31 Jul) and quiet levels on days two and three (01 Aug, 02 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jul 091
Predicted 31 Jul-02 Aug 091/088/086
90 Day Mean 30 Jul 126

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jul 006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jul 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jul-02 Aug 010/012-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/10/10
Minor Storm 15/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 50/15/15