Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 210 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jul 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 29/1624Z from Region 3380 (S10W12). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Jul, 31 Jul, 01 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 411 km/s at 29/1338Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 29/1954Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 29/1607Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 153 pfu at 29/0920Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1205 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 Jul), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (31 Jul) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (01 Aug). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (30 Jul) and have a chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (31 Jul, 01 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 30 Jul-01 Aug
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 99/40/40
PCAF red
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jul 179
Predicted 30 Jul-01 Aug 175/170/165
90 Day Mean 29 Jul 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jul 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jul 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jul-01 Aug 011/015-008/010-023/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jul-01 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/35
Minor Storm 10/05/30
Major-severe storm 01/01/15
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/10
Minor Storm 25/20/25
Major-severe storm 20/20/60
space weather
