Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 210 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jul 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 29/0433Z from Region 3068 (S15E45). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Jul, 31 Jul, 01 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 394 km/s at 29/0238Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 29/1453Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 29/2013Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 759 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (30 Jul), quiet to active levels on day two (31 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (01 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 30 Jul-01 Aug
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jul 093
Predicted 30 Jul-01 Aug 093/093/090
90 Day Mean 29 Jul 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jul 009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jul 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jul-01 Aug 007/008-011/012-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jul-01 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/35/10
Minor Storm 05/15/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 30/50/15
