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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 21 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jan 2023

By Keith Cowing
Status Report
NOAA SWPC
January 21, 2023
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 21 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jan 2023
space weather
NOAA SWPC

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 20/2247Z from Region 3192 (N16W15). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (22 Jan, 23 Jan, 24 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 550 km/s at 21/0908Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 21/0625Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 21/0716Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 243 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (22 Jan, 24 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (23 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (22 Jan, 23 Jan, 24 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jan 209
Predicted 22 Jan-24 Jan 205/200/205
90 Day Mean 21 Jan 149

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jan 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jan 014/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan 011/012-008/008-008/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/10/25
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 30/25/30
Major-severe storm 30/20/25

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