Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 209 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jul 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (29 Jul, 30 Jul, 31 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 461 km/s at 28/0357Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 28/0602Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 27/2147Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1004 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (29 Jul, 31 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day two (30 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 29 Jul-31 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jul 093
Predicted 29 Jul-31 Jul 092/092/092
90 Day Mean 28 Jul 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jul 009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jul 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jul-31 Jul 007/008-009/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jul-31 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/35/25
Minor Storm 05/15/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 25/50/30
