Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 208 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jul 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 27/1056Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Jul, 29 Jul, 30 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 514 km/s at 26/2131Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 27/2039Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 26/2104Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1277 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (28 Jul, 29 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (30 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 28 Jul-30 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Jul 098
Predicted 28 Jul-30 Jul 098/096/096
90 Day Mean 27 Jul 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jul 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jul 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jul-30 Jul 007/008-008/008-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jul-30 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/20/35
Minor Storm 05/05/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/10
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 20/25/50
