Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 206 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jul 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 25/0203Z from Region 3376 (N23W68). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Jul, 27 Jul, 28 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 459 km/s at 24/2131Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 25/1528Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 25/1915Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6 pfu at 24/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 342 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (26 Jul), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (27 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (28 Jul). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (26 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 26 Jul-28 Jul
Class M 40/35/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 25/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jul 169
Predicted 26 Jul-28 Jul 168/162/162
90 Day Mean 25 Jul 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jul 008/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jul 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jul-28 Jul 008/012-018/022-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jul-28 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/35/20
Minor Storm 10/25/05
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/20
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 20/45/15
space weather
