Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 206 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jul 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 25/0833Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days one, two, and three (26 Jul, 27 Jul, 28 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 546 km/s at 25/0217Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 25/1249Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 25/0251Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1247 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (26 Jul, 27 Jul, 28 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 26 Jul-28 Jul
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jul 102
Predicted 26 Jul-28 Jul 102/100/100
90 Day Mean 25 Jul 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jul 009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jul 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jul-28 Jul 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jul-28 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20
