Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 205 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jul 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 24/0426Z from Region 3372 (N24W91). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Jul, 26 Jul, 27 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 492 km/s at 23/2158Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 24/1806Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 24/1913Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7 pfu at 24/1955Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 345 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (25 Jul), quiet to active levels on day two (26 Jul) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (27 Jul). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (25 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul
Class M 45/35/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 40/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jul 165
Predicted 25 Jul-27 Jul 168/165/160
90 Day Mean 24 Jul 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jul 005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jul 007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jul-27 Jul 010/010-008/012-018/022
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/30/35
Minor Storm 05/10/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 20/20/45
space weather
