Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 205 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jul 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 23/2241Z from Region 3057 (N17W91). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days one, two, and three (25 Jul, 26 Jul, 27 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 586 km/s at 24/0534Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 23/2152Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 23/2329Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 926 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (25 Jul) and quiet levels on days two and three (26 Jul, 27 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jul 107
Predicted 25 Jul-27 Jul 108/106/102
90 Day Mean 24 Jul 128

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jul 015/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jul 007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jul-27 Jul 007/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/15/15
Major-severe storm 25/20/20