Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 203 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jul 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 21/2346Z from Region 3056 (S14W87). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Jul, 24 Jul, 25 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 604 km/s at 22/1429Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 21/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 21/2105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 851 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (23 Jul), quiet to active levels on day two (24 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (25 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jul 114
Predicted 23 Jul-25 Jul 112/108/108
90 Day Mean 22 Jul 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jul 014/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jul 014/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jul-25 Jul 029/040-011/014-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/20
Minor Storm 35/10/05
Major-severe storm 25/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/15/15
Minor Storm 15/30/25
Major-severe storm 79/40/25
