Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 202 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jul 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 20/2351Z from Region 3379 (N16E63). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Jul, 23 Jul, 24 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 448 km/s at 21/0521Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 21/2026Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 21/2057Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 21/0055Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 360 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (22 Jul, 24 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (23 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul
Class M 45/45/45
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jul 173
Predicted 22 Jul-24 Jul 170/170/165
90 Day Mean 21 Jul 162

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jul 010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jul 011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul 011/012-008/008-009/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/25
Minor Storm 10/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/15/25

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