Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 202 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jul 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 21/0111Z from Region 3060 (N14W20). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (22 Jul, 23 Jul, 24 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 466 km/s at 21/1658Z. Total IMF reached 21 nT at 21/1631Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -17 nT at 21/1527Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1333 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (22 Jul), unsettled to major storm levels on day two (23 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (24 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jul 122
Predicted 22 Jul-24 Jul 120/118/118
90 Day Mean 21 Jul 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jul 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jul 016/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul 017/020-029/040-011/014
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/30
Minor Storm 35/35/10
Major-severe storm 10/25/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/15
Minor Storm 20/15/30
Major-severe storm 75/79/40
